Why Rafa will fight Djokovic off and hold on to No 1

Link to official ATP Rankings

UPDATE – This article updated to new one here after Djokovic won at Rome

Rest easy Nadal fans – Rafa will stay on top until at least after Roland Garros…

There has been a lot of talk of Novak Djokovic’s chances of taking over the ATP No 1 position from Rafael Nadal either at the Rome Masters or at the French Open.

But that possibility requires one massive assumption – that he can outscore Rafa at either Rome or Roland Garros.

Let’s not forget something – Nadal has won the Rome title in 5 out of the last six years, as well as Roland Garros in 5 out of the last 6 years. He is perhaps the best clay court player of all time, and unlike the Madrid Masters which is played at altitude, these courts are perfect for his style of play.

So even if Nole makes it to the final in both, Nadal is favourite to win both titles. And in that case after Roland Garros he will retain a lead over the Serb of…365 points!

Here is the calculation:

Note – Madrid 2010 points drop 16th May, and Rome 2010 points already deducted from balance due to change in tournament calendar since last year.

Well let’s not take this lightly, Nadal will have to play brilliantly to achieve the above, but so will Djokovic, and Rafa has history and experience in his favour. Odds are on him.

On the other hand, the really big challenge will be Wimbledon where things are no longer in Rafa’s hands. If as above Nadal wins on clay and Djokovic loses the finals, then even a Wimbledon title may not be enough if Nole does indeed make it to the third consecutive final. So THERE is his chance – but truth is, I back Rafa to win all three, but think the Serb will fall short at either the French or Wimbledon .

Note – Queens left out of above for simplification, but it could also come in to play. Rafa defends 45 points and Nole 20 points.

Then for July and August… not so many points to defend and he could make up points on the hardcourt tour of North America before defending his title at the US Open.

My pick is that Rafa will be at No 1 until the end of the year!